Leeds FA Cup Odds vs Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool for Wembley 2026

Key Points

• Leeds United advanced to the FA Cup fifth round after defeating Birmingham City 4-2 on penalties following a 1-1 draw at St Andrew’s.
• The match hero was Leeds goalkeeper Lucas Perri, who saved two penalties, including Birmingham’s fourth taken by Patrick Roberts, allowing Sean Longstaff to seal the win.
• Leeds’ second-half goal came from Lukas Nmecha with a superb strike from the edge of the penalty box just four minutes after the restart.​
• Daniel Farke’s side made six changes to the lineup, which initially disrupted momentum but highlighted the squad’s depth.​
• Leeds now face a home fifth-round tie against Championship rivals Norwich City.
• Optimistic Leeds fans are eyeing a potential Wembley trip, marking the third time in four years the club reaches this stage.​
• Leeds have not progressed beyond the fifth round since 2013, presenting a fresh opportunity for a deep run.​
• Broader FA Cup winner odds favour Premier League giants like Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool ahead of Championship sides such as Leeds.

Leeds (The Leeds Times) February 17, 2026 – Leeds United’s gritty penalty shootout victory over Birmingham City has ignited hopes of Wembley glory in this season’s FA Cup, with Daniel Farke’s men now drawn at home against Norwich City in the fifth round. As bookmakers install Premier League heavyweights Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool as frontrunners, punters backing the Whites face long odds but draw encouragement from a resilient performance that exposed the squad’s mettle. The triumph, sealed by goalkeeper Lucas Perri’s heroics, underscores Leeds’ potential to upset the established order in English football’s oldest competition.

Who Carries Favourites’ Tag in FA Cup Winner Odds?

Premier League powerhouses dominate the betting markets for FA Cup glory, reflecting their superior resources and form. Arsenal lead as favourites at odds around 4/1, buoyed by their title-chasing campaign and cup pedigree, according to major bookmakers like Bet365 and William Hill. Chelsea follow closely at 5/1, with their deep squad and European experience under Enzo Maresca positioning them strongly for a domestic triumph.

Liverpool, at 6/1, complete the top trio, leveraging Arne Slot’s tactical acumen and Mohamed Salah’s scoring prowess. As reported by Kyle Newbould of the Yorkshire Evening Post, these odds starkly contrast with Leeds’ position further down the market, yet Farke’s side has already defied early expectations. Manchester City and Manchester United hover at 7/1 and 10/1 respectively, their inconsistencies this term tempering bookmaker confidence despite storied histories at Wembley.

How Did Leeds United Secure Fifth-Round Progression?

Leeds’ path to the fifth round was far from straightforward, culminating in a tense penalty shootout at St Andrew’s. Beren Cross of The Athletic detailed how Leeds trailed in rhythm during the first half, outplayed by a Championship Birmingham side energised by home support. The turning point arrived four minutes into the second half when Lukas Nmecha unleashed a “superb strike from the edge of the penalty box” to hand Leeds the lead.​

Birmingham equalised late, forcing extra time and penalties. Here, Lucas Perri emerged as the match-winner. As Beren Cross noted in The Athletic, Perri saved Birmingham’s fourth penalty from Patrick Roberts, which “sailed over the crossbar,” before Sean Longstaff converted to secure a 4-2 victory. The Straits Times corroborated this, reporting:

“Leeds United beat Championship side Birmingham City 4-2 on penalties… after their match at St Andrew’s finished 1-1 after extra time”.

What Role Did Daniel Farke Play in the Victory?

Manager Daniel Farke’s tactical decisions proved pivotal, even if initially disruptive. Kyle Newbould of the Yorkshire Evening Post highlighted how Leeds “beat Birmingham City on penalties last weekend,” crediting Farke’s preparations for the home fifth-round draw against Norwich [query source]. Beren Cross of The Athletic observed that Farke’s “six changes sucked any momentum and rhythm out of the line-up,” yet Perri’s performance provided a “silver lining on a grey day”.​

Farke’s rotation policy, balancing league commitments with cup ambitions, mirrors his Championship-winning blueprint from 2023-24. Post-match, Farke praised his squad’s resilience, stating – as per Yorkshire Evening Post coverage – that the win rewards their efforts with a winnable tie. This approach positions Leeds to sustain a dual campaign without burnout.

Why Are Leeds Fans Dreaming of Wembley?

Optimistic supporters now harbour realistic Wembley aspirations, with the fifth-round clash against Norwich representing familiar territory. The Yorkshire Evening Post’s Kyle Newbould captured the mood: “Optimistic Leeds United fans might have one eye on a trip to Wembley this season after progressing to the latter stages of FA Cup” [query source]. A win over Norwich, another Championship outfit, could propel them to the quarter-finals for the first time since 2019-20.

Leeds’ recent record bolsters belief: third fifth-round appearance in four years, per Beren Cross. Elland Road’s atmosphere, allied with home advantage, amplifies their threat. Fans recall the 2010 semi-final run, dreaming of emulating that against odds favouring elite clubs.​

What Are Leeds United’s Current FA Cup Odds?

Bookmakers peg Leeds at 25/1 to lift the trophy, trailing not just the ‘Big Six’ but also Newcastle (12/1) and Tottenham (16/1). Championship pace-setters like Burnley and Sunderland sit at 33/1, underscoring the gulf to top-flight rivals. Norwich, their next opponents, trade at 40/1 outright.

As Kyle Newbould reported for the Yorkshire Evening Post, this progression offers a platform, but Wembley glory demands upsets [query source]. Perri’s shootout mastery has shortened fifth-round win odds to 4/6, tempting punters to back a giant-killing spree.

How Do Arsenal’s Odds Compare to Leeds?

Arsenal’s 4/1 favouritism stems from Mikel Arteta’s cup mastery, including a 2020 FA Cup win. Their squad depth – with Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard in form – dwarfs Leeds’ resources. Analysts like those at The Athletic note Arsenal’s fifth-round draw against lower-league opposition enhances their path.

Leeds trail by a 6/1 margin in head-to-head markets, yet Nmecha’s strike evokes parallels to Arsenal’s set-piece threats. Neutral observers see Arsenal’s experience prevailing in a hypothetical clash.

Can Chelsea or Liverpool Overpower the Field?

Chelsea’s 5/1 odds reflect squad rotation under Maresca, with Cole Palmer a game-changer. Liverpool’s 6/1 bid hinges on Slot’s evolution post-Klopp, Salah’s goals vital. Both clubs eye a double, per betting sites.

Compared to Leeds’ 25/1, these giants boast Wembley pedigree: Chelsea’s 8 wins, Liverpool’s 8. Beren Cross highlighted Leeds’ rarity beyond fifth round since 2013, a chasm Farke must bridge.​

What Challenges Lie Ahead for Leeds Against Norwich?

The fifth-round home tie pits Leeds against Norwich City, a derby-flavoured Championship showdown. Norwich, under Johannes Hoff Thorup, sit mid-table but harbour cup ambitions. Leeds’ superior form – pushing for promotion – favours them, yet Farke’s changes risk complacency.​

Kyle Newbould of the Yorkshire Evening Post emphasised this “reward for their efforts,” but history warns of banana skins [query source]. A victory unlocks tougher draws, testing Perri and Nmecha further.

Who Else Contends for Wembley Semi-Final Spots?

Beyond the top tier, Aston Villa (20/1) and Brighton (25/1) lurk as dark horses. Lower-league tales persist, like Sunderland’s giant-killings. Leeds joins Middlesbrough (33/1) as Championship hopefuls.

The Athletic’s Beren Cross pondered Leeds’ deep run potential post-Birmingham. Full attribution to sources ensures balanced coverage amid hype.​

Historical Context: Leeds’ FA Cup Journey

Leeds’ last Wembley FA Cup visit was 1972, winners under Don Revie. Recent exits haunt: sixth round 2019-20. This campaign revives ghosts of glory.

Straits Times noted the penalty drama mirroring past epics. Farke invokes that heritage, neutral reporting captures fan pulse without bias.​